CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-12-07T16:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16214/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C7.4 flare from AR 2790 (S23W11) that peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The eruption signature of this event can be seen in SDO AIA 193/304 starting as early 2020-12-07T15:30Z. The chosen start time for this CME event is the initial time it was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery since SOHO LASCO data was unaavailable during real-time analysis. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: Beginning at 2020-12-10T01:29Z, DSCOVR detects magnetic field strength increases to 10 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 450 to 600 km/s, density jumps to over 20/cc, and temperatures jump to over 300,000 K. Similar signatures are seen by ACE at the same time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-10T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-09T08:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note: Lead Time: 45.32 hour(s)
Difference: 17.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2020-12-08T04:10Z
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